Historic By-Election Draws to a Close

Polls closed on Thursday in what is being described as the largest by-election ever staged in the United Kingdom, with more than 2.1 million people across the 10 boroughs of Greater Manchester eligible to vote for Andy Burnham's successor as mayor . The contest, triggered by Burnham's election as MP for Makerfield last month, represents a significant political moment for the region and the country.

However, the historic nature of the vote has been overshadowed by national political developments. The campaign has largely been eclipsed by Burnham's rapid ascent to Prime Minister and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage's self-imposed parliamentary by-election in Clacton . Labour has benefited from a "Burnham bounce" in the polls, while Reform UK's focus has shifted 200 miles south-east .

Counting Underway, Results Expected Friday

Verification and counting of votes from Thursday's by-election started at 9:30 AM on Friday and is ongoing throughout the day . The result is not expected to be declared until later on Friday afternoon, according to The Independent .

Counting is taking place at the Co-op Live arena in Manchester, with the first round of counting having been completed while other boroughs continue their counts . Under the Supplementary Vote system being used, if no candidate achieves 50% of the first-preference votes, a second round of counting will be triggered where the top two candidates proceed to a runoff and second-preference votes from eliminated candidates are redistributed .

Pre-Election Polling Points to Labour Victory

Pre-election polling conducted before the vote suggests Labour's Bev Craig is on course to win by a comfortable margin. A poll by More in Common this week gave Craig, the leader of Manchester City Council, a 20 percentage point lead over Reform UK's Sian Astley . The Greens were in third place on 14 points, just ahead of the Conservatives .

Another poll by YouGov reportedly showed Craig winning the final round with 62% of the vote against Reform UK's 38% . Most of the polling was carried out before Burnham became Prime Minister, suggesting the Labour lead may have strengthened further.

Labour is widely seen as having an advantage under the Supplementary Vote system, as the party is more likely to be picked as the second choice for Green, Liberal Democrat, and even some Conservative voters . Reform UK, by contrast, cannot count on such broad support. The More in Common poll found that Labour's lead would stretch to 30 points if Reform UK finished second, as Craig is the most popular second choice for most Greens and a sizeable chunk of Conservatives .

Record Low Turnout Casts Shadow

Despite the unprecedented scale of the electorate, early indications suggest voter engagement has been historically low. Unofficial reports indicate a turnout of just 25.14%, with 538,659 verified ballots cast out of 2,142,779 eligible voters . This would represent a significant drop from the 32.05% turnout recorded in the previous mayoral election in 2024 .

The low turnout has been attributed to several factors, including voter apathy, the timing of the by-election during the school summer holidays, and the campaign being overshadowed by Burnham's national profile and Farage's activities . Campaign group the Campaign for Compulsory Voting described the projected turnout as a "damning indictment of our broken democratic system" .

The Candidates and the Stakes

The ballot paper features seven candidates: Bev Craig for Labour, Sian Astley for Reform UK, Geraldine Coggins for the Green Party, Phil Eckersley for the Conservatives, Marcus Farmer as an independent, Richard Kilpatrick for the Liberal Democrats, and Marlon West for Restore Britain .

The mayor of Greater Manchester controls a £3bn annual budget and holds significant powers across housing, health, policing, and transport. The role has become one of the most powerful combined authorities outside London, centred around a city that has grown economically faster than anywhere else in the UK over the past decade.

For the parties, the result will be closely scrutinised as a bellwether for future elections. Anything short of a strong second-place finish for Reform UK would be a blow, given the party's strong performance in the May 2026 local elections across Greater Manchester, where it won more than 100 council seats . The Green Party will be hoping to at least double its 2024 vote share of 7%, while the Conservatives will aim to maintain relevance in a region where Labour has dominated .

The Political Context

The by-election represents the first electoral test for Labour under Prime Minister Andy Burnham's leadership, coming just weeks after he took office . The contest has been described as the largest by-election in British political history, yet it has received relatively limited public attention due to the expense of campaigning across a region of 2 million voters and the frequency of recent elections .

Given some residents will have voted three times in the past five months, many expect turnout to be lower than in previous years. Yet if even a third of registered voters cast their ballot, the verdict of 600,000 people would represent a significant democratic mandate for the successful candidate.

All parties will be analysing the result with a view to the next set of local elections in May 2027, when a third of all seats in the 10 Greater Manchester boroughs are up for grabs . Reform UK will be eyeing control of councils including Bolton, Wigan, and Rochdale, while the Green Party hopes to threaten Labour's half-century grip on Manchester City Council .

The result is expected to be declared later on Friday afternoon, and the political landscape of Greater Manchester will be reshaped as the region prepares for a new mayor to take on the mantle left by the Prime Minister .